Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Bonds are fighting

Bonds are fighting a key barrier of overhead resistance at their 200-day Moving Average. This has put a lid on any further advance, and I'm concerned this firm barrier will turn the tide and send prices lower.
US Consumer Confidence, which is a measure of consumer optimism toward current economic conditions, fell sharply in August to its worst level in a year. The decline was the sharpest since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and has been attributed to the relentless bad news from the credit crunch in financial markets.
This afternoon, the Fed will release the Minutes from the August 7th meeting. It will be interesting to get the Fed's views on the credit crunch, since it was just beginning to unfold at the time they met.Since Bonds are testing serious resistance at the 200-day moving average, a level that has only been crossed three times in two years, a locking mode is in effect for today.

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Is consumer mortgage counseling always a good idea?

Effort to Advise on Risky Loans Runs Into Snag

Sally Ryan for The New York Times

Jasmika Cook went through a mandatory mortgage counseling session, but said she was unimpressed with the advice. She and her daughter, Zoe, moved into a home in an area where counseling was not required.

A single mother and a homeowner on the city’s south side, Ms. McKinney briefly entertained the idea of taking $50,000 of equity out of her home to pay off debts, at an initial interest rate of 9.5 percent, sharply higher than her existing mortgage. But after attending a new mandatory state program to counsel borrowers on their mortgages, she realized the loan was too expensive and unnecessary.

“The counseling helped me understand that this was on the excessive side,” said Ms. McKinney, a project manager for a telecommunications company.

It sounds like a success story. But in January, with the program in place a little more than three months, Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich suspended it after critics complained that the government was wading too deeply into the personal financial lives of its citizens.

Mortgage brokers, real estate agents and minority community leaders said that the effort, while well intentioned, put a damper on real estate transactions in the largely black and Hispanic neighborhoods in southwestern Chicago where the program operated. This amounted, they further argued, to redlining.

Now the state is considering expanding the counseling to all of Chicago and its suburbs to avoid charges of racial discrimination. But that too has been challenged by industry officials as unnecessary meddling that will severely slow real estate transactions.

Illinois’ approach raises questions about how far lawmakers and regulators can go in trying to safeguard consumers from risky and expensive home loans before they are seen as overly intrusive.

So far, discussions in Washington and elsewhere have focused mostly on what should be done to help homeowners in foreclosure and how to rein in aggressive mortgage lenders. Illinois has been largely alone in focusing on trying to make sure borrowers fully understand the debts they are taking on.

Housing counselors, who supported the initial phase of the program, say it saved people like Ms. McKinney from taking on large debts on onerous terms. But they added that many financially pressured borrowers went ahead with loans even after excessive fees and interest rates had been clearly explained to them.

Critics, however, asserted that the counseling was yet another hurdle borrowers had to surmount. Brokers also said that the program was at best a half-measure because it did not cover loans made by federally chartered banks that the state could not regulate.

The plan’s first iteration applied only to borrowers in 10 ZIP codes that had experienced the most significant increases in foreclosures. Borrowers with low credit scores or people who were taking out certain exotic mortgages were required to talk with a federally certified housing group. About 1,200 loans were vetted before the program was suspended.

Now, the state is retooling the program to include all of Cook County, which encompasses Chicago and many of its suburbs. Under the proposal, first-time home buyers and borrowers who are refinancing would be referred to counseling only if they selected certain loans like adjustable-rate mortgages that reset in five years or less, or loans that initially require only interest payments. A state agency is drafting the rules, which must be approved by a committee of lawmakers.

Even as that process plays out, the Illinois General Assembly is considering legislation that would enshrine the new counseling rules in law. In addition, the bill would require mortgage brokers to act in their clients’ best interest and bar state-regulated lenders from making loans without verifying borrowers’ income with tax returns, paycheck stubs or other documents.

The counseling sessions provide a rare and revealing window into lending to people with weak, or subprime, credit. Borrowers in this world are often in a financial bind, and loan brokers and officers who deal in these mortgages typically earn hefty commissions and know much more about the loans than their clients.

A report compiled by an advocacy group, Housing Action Illinois, shows that the majority of borrowers who were about take on adjustable-rate mortgages believed that they had fixed-rate loans. More than two-thirds of the borrowers were spending more than 60 percent of their take-home pay on housing expenses. And 75 percent of the borrowers were refinancing existing debts; the rest were buying a home.

“We really feel like that the counseling was a great benefit to everyone who got it,” said Bob Palmer, policy director for Housing Action. But real estate officials “really got all the momentum in terms of controlling the public debate and very effectively and misleadingly made it an issue about race and ethnicity.”

While the counseling sessions persuaded some like Ms. McKinney to back out, counselors said that other borrowers went ahead with dubious loans, because they felt trapped by credit card balances, medical bills and other debt.

“Some of them realized that even though their monthly mortgage payment was going to increase, they had to do this,” said Alfred Guyton, executive director for the Institute for Consumer Credit Education.

It is unclear how many borrowers who were counseled closed on their mortgages, since the state has not provided an analysis of a database it maintains on the loans. The Greater Southwest Development Corporation, one of the counseling agencies, estimates that up to 60 percent of the people it talked to closed on a loan, based on a survey of public filings. But it does not know how many renegotiated the terms of their loans.

The president of the Illinois Association of Mortgage Brokers, Bill McNamee, said the nonprofit agencies’ analysis could not be trusted because they have an incentive to play up problems — they receive $300 for each counseling session, which is paid for by brokers and lenders. “They are going to want to justify their existence so they can continue to collect their fees,” he said.

Brokers and real estate agents said that home sales fell by more than 45 percent in the neighborhoods where the counseling requirement was introduced, which was much more than the decline in unaffected areas nearby. Brokers assert that a countywide requirement could severely slow the housing market in Chicago.

John West, a mortgage broker, said the government should emphasize first-time home buyer classes and a more rigorous financial education curriculum in public schools. “People want government to safeguard them,” Mr. West said. “But I don’t want to be turning my head and seeing the government saying, ‘We think you should make another decision.’ ”

Some borrowers share that view.

Jasmika Cook, who oversees vocational programs in the city college system, said that she was unimpressed by a counseling session in November when she was considering buying a house in one of the 10 ZIP codes. (She ultimately bought a house in another area.) She said the counselor merely verified that the terms of the loan a broker entered into a state database matched information on her loan application.

“I don’t see how $300 worth of service was provided,” she said.

Ms. Cook said the state should respond to aggressive lending, noting that a friend’s monthly house payments recently jumped 45 percent when the fixed-rate period on her loan ended. She said that the proposed rules were an improvement because they screened for risky loans, not for troubled borrowers in low-income neighborhoods.

Though many may object to the idea of mandatory counseling, the mortgage industry has found it beneficial in the past.

Until last year, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which buy mortgages, required lenders to send borrowers who were taking out certain affordable housing loans to counseling. A Freddie Mac study from 2001 showed that homeowners who were counseled under its Affordable Gold program were 19 percent less likely to fall behind on payments for three months or more at any time during the life of the loan than borrowers in comparable circumstances who were not counseled.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were created by Congress, eliminated those requirements because the mortgage companies they bought loans from, the agencies said, were losing customers to lenders that did not require counseling and were generally more lenient.

“We made the determination that it would be better to drop the counseling requirement to encourage customers to get into a better product,” said Thomas A. Lund, executive vice president of Fannie Mae.

Illinois officials have received more than 300 comments on its proposed rules, and lobbyists for industry groups have stepped up their campaigns to sway lawmakers.

Dean Martinez, secretary of the state’s Department of Financial and Professional Regulation, says that the uproar is missing the point and suggests that the term “counseling” may be the problem. He views the sessions as akin to state driving tests. They are there to make sure borrowers fully comprehend what they are doing, not to watch over their every action.

“Mario Andretti has to take a driver’s license test,” Mr. Martinez said, “even though he is one of the best drivers in the world. No one disputes that.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

New-Home Sales in U.S. Jump 16% to 981,000 Pace in April

New-Home Sales in U.S. Jump 16% to 981,000 Pace in April

By Bob Willis

May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Purchases of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly jumped in April by the most in 14 years, a sign low lending rates and incentives may be reviving demand.

Purchases rose 16 percent to an annual pace of 981,000 last month from an 844,000 rate the prior month that was lower than previously reported, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The supply of unsold homes at the current sales pace dropped.

Lower prices and incentives offered by builders such as Centex Corp. are stirring demand for new homes after two years of falling sales. Still, a glut of unsold properties suggests homebuilding is likely to remain a drag on growth throughout this year and into 2008.

``We are plateauing rather than continuing a downward trend,'' Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, said before the report. His firm forecasts new home sales will total 860,000 this year. ``It's consistent with the stability we've seen in recent months.''

Economists forecast sales at an 860,000 annual pace from an originally reported 858,000 rate the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 72 economists. Forecasts ranged from an annual rate of 800,000 to 940,000.

April's sales pace was the highest so far this year.

The median price of a new home dropped 11 percent last month to $229,100 from $257,000 a year earlier, today's report showed.

The number of homes for sale at the end of the month dropped to 532,000 from 540,000 in March. That left the supply of homes at the current sales rate at 6.5 month's worth, the lowest this year, compared with 8.1 months in March.

Forecasts

Citing tightened lending standards, the National Association of Realtors on May 9 lowered its forecasts for home construction and sales. It forecast new-home sales to fall this year to 864,000 from 1.05 million in 2006.

Existing home sales will decline to 6.29 million this year, from 6.48 million in 2006, while housing starts will drop to 1.49 million from 1.8 million in 2006, the Realtors also forecast. New home prices will be unchanged this year while median existing- home prices may slip 1 percent from 2006, according to the forecast.

Purchases rose in three of four regions. They jumped 28 percent in the South, rose 8.5 percent in the West and 3.8 percent in the Northeast. Sales dropped 4 percent in the Midwest.

Compared with a year earlier, new home sales were down 11 percent, today's report showed.

Home construction is in its worst recession since 1990, subtracting about 1 percentage point from growth in each of the last three quarters. The economy grew at a 1.3 percent pace in the first quarter, the slowest pace in four years.

Leading Indicator

New-home sales, which account for about 15 percent of total home sales, are considered a better leading indicator of the market than existing home sales because they are recorded when a contract is signed rather than when the sales are closed. Most sales of existing homes are counted when a contract closes, usually a month or two later.


Incentives

Centex Corp., the third largest U.S. homebuilder, and other homebuilders are using sales incentives to lure buyers and whittle down the inventory of unsold homes. Centex advertised no- money down financing on townhouses and condominiums, a full basement or $15,000 in options in the Chicago area in the Chicago Tribune on April 27.

``Given the affordability issues we face, given the mortgage issues that we face, there's going to be more pressure on pricing than anything else,'' Centex Chief Executive Officer Tim Eller said in a conference call on May 3.

Friday, May 18, 2007

What's next for the Subprime Mortgage sector

There is no shortage of media coverage on the downturn in the Subprime sector of the mortgage industry. Industry leader New Century's filing for bankruptcy and the recent sale of Option One, another industry giant, are just two of the many stories that have appeared in the news.

This shakeup has lead to a significant reduction in the options that borrower with less than perfect credit now have before them when the time comes to purchase a new property or refinance and existing one.

The good news is that this will probably not be the case for an extended period of time. There are already signs that the lenders that still offer products for borrowers with non-traditional and damaged credit needs, are looking for ways to re-expand their guidelines, or to develop new loan vehicles that meet the needs of these borrowers.

Look for investment banks to lead the way in the development of these new products, that will allow borrowers to accomplish their home finance goals, while offering better protection to homeowners.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Gas saving myths exposed

Here's something I found on CNN that's a little off topic but might be of interest as gas prices approach $4 a gallon.

4 gas-saving myths

Think you're stretching your gas dollars by killing the air conditioning or buying your gas on Wednesday? Think again.

By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Using a special additive or cutting off your A/C won't really cut your gasoline consumption. But myths like these run rampant in the minds of American drivers.

Right now, the price of gasoline is (once again) approaching nose-bleed levels. Last week the nationwide average for a gallon of regular unleaded self-serve gasoline climbed to $3.07 a gallon.

CNN's Mary Snow reports on why some politicians are calling for a probe to find out what's behind record high gas prices (May 7)
Play video

So before you attempt a half-baked scheme to stretch your gas dollars, here's a look at what's fact and what's fiction when it comes to fuel economy:

Nothing but gimmicks

There have been additives, special magnets and even a pill that has promised to improve a car's fuel efficiency by as much as 30 percent in some cases.

While the promise of stretching your gas dollars seems awfully lucrative, especially when they cost under $20, most of these products provide a negligible, if any, improvement in fuel efficiency, said Rik Paul, the automotive editor for the publication Consumer Reports.

Consumer Reports and the government's Environment Protection Agency, have tested dozens of these products finding that none of them offer any significant improvement in fuel economy.

"With all the pressure car companies are under, if one of these inexpensive devices dramatically did improve fuel economy, they (automakers) would be all over it," said Paul.

Windows, air conditioning - who cares?

There's the old saw that leaving your windows rolled down creates an aerodynamic drag on your car, cutting down on fuel efficiency. And there's the notion that the fastest way to drain your gas tank is by running your air conditioning.

Don't believe either one.

In two separate studies conducted in 2005, the automotive Web site Edmunds.com and Consumer Reports compared the fuel economy of both a sedan and an SUV at highway speeds with and without air conditioning and how open windows affected gas usage.

What they found was no significant difference in fuel economy in either sedan or SUV under either condition.

Don't wait until Wednesday

Some drivers insist the best time to buy gasoline is on a Wednesday, when pump prices have cooled from the weekend run-up when oil companies typically raise prices.

That's true to a point, says Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices tend to be higher on the weekend, but there's no ideal day of the week to purchase your gas.

Geoff Sundstrom of the motorist organization AAA notes that gas prices fluctuate from day to day and are determined by gas station owners who look at a variety of factors including wholesale gasoline prices, competitors' prices and food and drink sales if they have an attached convenience store.

Drivers who want to bargain-hunt for inexpensive gas should instead check out Web sites like Gasbuddy.com, which allows consumers to find the cheapest gas in their area simply by entering their zip code.

Restart your engines

It's probably a myth that goes back to the days when cars were equipped with carburetors, but many drivers believe that starting up and turning off your car repeatedly is a fast way to drain your gas tank.

But because of modern fuel-injection technology, drivers actually save gas by turning off their engine than letting their car needlessly idle, says Consumer Reports' Paul.

Granted it's probably not sensible shutting down the engine every time you get stuck in traffic, but if it looks like you might be at the drive-thru for more than 30 seconds to a minute, it's worth turning off your car, says Paul.

Tips you can use

So what are some fuel-savings tips you can trust?

  • Make sure your tires are properly inflated for starters. Besides posing a safety hazard, underinflated tires can reduce your fuel economy slightly, based on Edmunds.com's 2005 study.
  • Removing excess weight from your car can also help save you gas. The Department of Energy estimates that drivers can save anywhere between 3 and 6 cents a gallon (assuming gas prices of $2.97 a gallon) just by removing those golf clubs and other unnecessary weight from your trunk.
  • If your car comes equipped with cruise control, make sure you use it, especially on long trips. Edmunds.com's study revealed that using cruise control at highway speeds offered an average fuel economy savings of 7 percent.
  • But the biggest fuel saver is driving the speed limit and driving sensibly. Rapid starts and stops and exceeding the speed limit will dent your pocketbook. Just by adhering to one of those, the Department of Energy estimates that drivers can save anywhere between 15 and 98 cents a gallon, again assuming pump prices are at $2.97 a gallon.

Wednesday, May 9, 2007

Fed still concerned about inflation

Perhaps a little surprisingly, the Federal Reserve held the Fed Funds target rate steady today and indicated again that it was concerned about economic growth as well as inflation, a statement investors took as a welcome sign the central bank will not raise rates any time soon

It was the seventh straight time that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow policy-makers held steady after raising rates 17 straight times, through June 2006, in a bid to fight inflation.

The Fed noted that economic growth slowed early this year, but indicated it's also still worried about inflation, saying "the predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected."

But it also said that "future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth," language identical to what the central bank said when it held rates steady in March.

But as far as Wall Street is concerned, inflation no longer seems such a prevalent threat. The Fed's decision to leave rates alone comes at an interesting time for the financial markets. Stocks have been on a tear since March despite the slowest economic growth in four years in the first quarter.

The Fed acknowledged this weakness in its statement but reiterated that it did not expect the economy to weaken much further.

"Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters," the Fed said.

Tuesday, May 8, 2007

Fed Meeting tomorrow

Tomorrow is Fed Day and the Bond market is eagerly waiting to hear the Fed's Policy Statement in light of the recent data showing moderate economic growth and tamer inflation. There is no chance the Fed will take any action on the Fed Funds Rate at this meeting, but as always, the Policy Statement itself will be closely scrutinized.

The latest data indicates inflation may be moderating. For example, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) was just reported at 2.1% year over year and closer to - although slightly above - the Fed's target zone of 1 to 2%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) also came in tamer than expected, and also closer to the Fed's target. The Jobs Report showed a slight ease in wage-based inflation pressures. All this has the Fed feeling good about inflation heading in the right direction, which takes any chance of a hike off the table for now...and a cut could be considered later this year, if we see inflation dip below 2% and appear to be headed lower for a few consecutive months.

Friday, May 4, 2007

Today's Economic news

The Labor Department reported 88,000 new jobs created in April, which was slightly below official expectations.

Some other highlights of the report - the April Unemployment Rate rose slightly to 4.5%, matching expectations. Average Hourly Earnings were reported slightly lower than expected at 0.2%. The weaker read on Hourly Earnings was good news for Bonds as it suggests wage pressured inflation is easing. There were also downward revisions which removed 26,000 jobs from the previous two months reports. Overall, the Job Report suggests the strong labor market is softening a touch and wage based inflation pressure is moderating.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has to be smiling this morning as recent reports suggest the Fed is doing a great job in handling the economy, which shows moderate growth and inflation pressures easing. The softer than expected 0.2% reading on Hourly Earnings was welcome news this morning, as the Fed recently expressed some concern that labor costs may rise more than expected. As we all know the recent Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) showed a year over year reading of 2.2%, which is much closer to the Fed's target zone of 1 - 2%. Based on the recent economic data, the Fed must be thinking about a cut in the 2nd half of 2007, which is also in line with our Mortgage Market Forecast for 2007, which you can find in the Resources section of the website. In light of the recent news, it will be especially interesting to hear the tone of Fed's Monetary Policy statement at the Fed Meeting next Wednesday at 2:15pm ET.

Thursday, May 3, 2007

Massachusetts Imposes Foreclosure Moratorium

Massachusetts Imposes Foreclosure Moratorium

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick has ordered state banking regulators to seek delays of up to two months on foreclosures against homeowners who have filed complaints with the Division of Banks. The move makes the commonwealth the first state in the country to place a moratorium on repossession proceedings, but it is not unprecedented. Years ago, shortly before adjustable-rate mortgages were approved by federal authorities, states held sway over institutions in their jurisdictions that made what were then known an variable-rate mortgages. And one, Wisconsin, refused to allow lenders to reset loans to higher levels when the market rate moved into double-digit territory. This time around, housing advocates say they expect Gov. Patrick's action to set the pattern for other states. "We will bring the Massachusetts standard nationwide," Bruce Marks, head of Neighborhood Assistance of America, told the Boston Herald. The governor said in a statement that stays would be sought on a case-by-case basis, but Mr. Marks indicated that his group would assist owners who are struggling to make their payments in filing complaints with the state. "It is effectively a moratorium of foreclosures in Massachusetts," he is quoted as saying. "It is a very big deal."

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Today's economic report

Today is a slow news day with nothing noteworthy on the calendar. Traders are not likely to place any big bets in advance of Friday's important Jobs Report, therefore we don't expect any major price moves over the next day. But read on, as Friday is setting up to be a real shootout with Bond prices poised for a breakout.

Tomorrow we will lay out our plan of action heading into Friday's Jobs Report, but one thing to consider in the meantime is the release of the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) payroll number, which was reported this morning. The ADP report showed 64,000 new private sector jobs added in April, and when you factor in the three month average of government jobs added, this report calls for 91,000 new jobs created in April, or just slightly below the 100,000 estimate for Friday's official number. Bond prices had little reaction as the ADP number was close to the official estimates. Additionally, the ADP results have been less than reliable.

Here's an important story to follow - we have discussed on many occasions how investors around the globe search for yield. In recent years, there has been a lot of foreign buying of our Bonds. And this foreign buying has helped keep our interest rates low. But times are changing, as Bond yields in other major foreign markets have been gradually rising. For example, when comparing the yields of US Treasuries with those of Great Britain, it was common in recent years to see US yields higher than those offered in Europe. But now, things have changed, and Bonds in Great Britain actually offer higher yields.

Foreign investors have more of an incentive to keep their money "closer to home" in their own countries, and this has the effect of less foreign investing in our US Bonds. Foreign purchases of our Bonds has averaged $16 Billion a month this year, down from $23.5 Billion a month for the previous year. Should this fall-off in foreign support continue, it may pressure our Bond prices lower over time and thus apply upward pressure on our long-term interest rates.


Charity

Last night I attended a VIP shopping night at Hazel & Grace, a womens shopping boutique in Wellesley, for the owner of Blitz Media, Marcie Cohen. Marcie invited a few of her friends who shopped and mingled over wine and cheese. The event also raised money for a charity Marcie is involved with called Cradles to Crayons. They raised $500 for a fantastic organization and had a great night as well.

Tuesday, May 1, 2007

Economic News affecting today's mortgage rates

At 10am ET, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index will be released and unless it is reported wildly out of range, it shouldn't have a big impact on prices.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be speaking at 11:00am ET on the topic of "Embracing the Challenge of Free Trade: Competing and Prospering in a Global Economy". We don't expect any surprising words from this speech, but should Big Ben get into a discussion on the recent inflationary data or economic conditions, you can bet Traders will be listening for something to trade on, especially on a slow news day like today.

What we're hearing about the local purchase market

Many of the realtors that we work with are telling us that the Boston area purchase market is starting to heat up. Despite numerous media reports saying that the U.S. housing market is in a downturn, sales are picking up throughout the greater Boston area.

Welcome

Thanks for visiting the New England Mortgage Blog hosted by First New England Mortgage. Our goal in creating this blog is to provide a central hub for information regarding the home finance process.

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